недеља, 21. фебруар 2016.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES AS NATURAL DISASTERS

Much of the scientific community agrees that global temperature as a result of climate change has increased significantly in the last century, and will continue to grow in the near future. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001 (IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees in the 20th century, although climate warming was not uniform neither spatially nor temporally, as was indicated by observed changes and modelling studies. Variations in global or regional cases of extreme air temperatures occurred due to changes in climate, cause more and more attention lately as living beings and ecosystems and human society are sensitive to the severity, frequency and persistence of cases of extreme temperatures. In this regard, in order to effectively protect and response to emergencies caused by harmful temperature extremes, it is necessary among other things to investigate comprehensively mentioned natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be an analysis of climate change as well as form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperatures. Using an international database on natural disasters of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), based in Brussels, with the support of program for statistical analysis (SPSS) and the method of thematic cartography, we have tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperature in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural hazard.

Nowadays, the fight against climate change represents one of the priorities in the policy of international community. Climate change already adversely affects ecosystems and throughout the century it will increase the rate and degree of occurrence. This means that food and water will be less available, natural disasters will be more often, human health threatened, species will disappear and ecosystems will be destroyed or degraded. The expected effects of climate change are complex and far-reaching, so it is not surprising that a number of global initiatives are focused precisely on these problems. In addition to the activities to mitigate climate change, it has become inevitable an urgency of developing a system of adaptation to climate change. Correlation between adaptation to climate change with all other problems of development and the necessity of a comprehensive resolution presents special challenges for all sectors, including politics, science, economy and civil society. Much of the scientific community agrees that global temperature as a result of climate change has increased significantly in the last century, and will continue to grow in the foreseeable future. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001, the mean global temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees during the twentieth century, although climate warming was not uniform either spatially or temporally, as it is indicated by observed changes and modelling studies. It is expected that the increase in mean temperature will be accompanied by an increasing number of hot days and warm nights. Since these changes can be identified, it is expected that there will also be changes in cases of extreme temperatures, such as there are increasing number of days with extremely low or extremely high temperatures. Climate change is more reflected in extreme temperatures than in their mean values. This means that if global climate change is actual phenomenon it could be detected and clearly shown through the patterns of behaviour of extreme climatic events. Variations in global or regional cases of extreme air temperatures that occur due to changes in climate cause more and more attention lately, as living beings and ecosystems and human society are sensitive to the severity, frequency and persistence of extreme temperatures.

Using an international database on natural disasters of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) with the support of program for statistical analysis (SPSS) and thematic cartography methods we have tried to point out the geospatial and temporal distribution of temperature extremes in the period from 1900 to 2013. By analysing geospatial distribution of temperature extremes by continents it can be concluded that the greatest number of extreme temperatures affected the geographical area of ​​Europe, so that the greatest number of people killed due to the impact of extreme temperatures was recorded on this continent. However, looking at individual countries, the number of people killed due to consequences of extreme temperatures in the first place is Russia, followed by France, Italy, Spain and finally India. Data from the analyses of temporal distribution of temperature extremes in the period from 1900 to 2013, show that 970 extreme temperatures happened, whereas in the same period, 342 600 people were killed 3,768,924 injured, 191 024 480 affected and 500 680 left homeless.

At the end of the 1970s, it can be noted a significant increase in the number of extreme temperatures, while the peak is the period from 2000 to 2013, when happened 59.79% of the total number of extreme temperatures for the given period.

For citation: Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2015). Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters. Vojno delo, 6/2015.