субота, 28. мај 2016.

The fear of natural disaster caused by flood

Abstract: The subject of quantitative research is a determination of fear level of natural disaster caused by flood and examination its relationships with demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation relationships nature of these characteristics and fear. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. According to the survey, 49.7% of respondents said they feel fear, 16.1% were not sure, and 33.2% do not feel the fear of natural disasters caused by flooding. In addition, the results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the fear to sex, age, education, marital status, employment status, income level, swimming abilities and the type of ownership of the facility in which to live, until such a relationship does not exist with level of religiosity and success in high school. Social and scientific justification of the research arising from the necessity to examine the situation and the level of citizens' fear of natural disaster caused by flood with a view to taking some proactive measures aimed to offset the fear by taking certain measures of preparedness to react in such situations. The research results might be used in planning the psychological help and support to citizens in the stages of preparation, response and recovery from natural disasters.



Keywords: security, natural disaster, citizens, fear, floods, demographic and socio-economic characteristics.

Link for work: 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/302448851_NATURAL_DISASTER_RISK_INSURANCE_AND_REDUCTION_-_OSIGURANE_I_SMANENE_RIZIKA_OD_PRIRODNIH_KATASTROFA?ev=prf_pub

For citation: Cvetković, M. V., & Sandić, M. (2016). The fear of natural disaster caused by flood. Ecologica, 23(82).  

среда, 18. мај 2016.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK (ESMF) FOR FOSTERING ENVIRONEMTNAL PROTECTION AND SECURITY IN DRINA RIVER BASIN RIPARIAN COUNTRIES



The transboundary nature of the Environmental issues is recognized as a fact, as in Science, so in practice and in politics. On a global level efforts are being made towards making the Communities resilient on Natural Hazards and Catastrophes that arises from them. This is most due of the fact that the Political borders between states are absolutely irrelevant for the Geography and the Natural processes that happens on Earth. One of the most challenging processes that the Human race is facing is the Climate change issue. Also, the level of drinking water, and most of all, the Water management which is being divvied between two or more states is one of the most common mentioned argument towards the understanding of the Environmental Security Doctrine. Thus, meaning that the access to drinking water especially as a result of water management of another Country could be a reason even for war.
That is why this paper tries to answer some of the questions that arises from the fostered international waterway management between three Countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB), through the West Balkans Drina River Basin Management (WBDRBM) actions. These countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB) undoubtedly must strengthen the capacity to plan and implement integrated, cooperative management of the trans-boundary Drina River Basin (DRB) and address climate change adaptation throughout the DRB – based on “global best practices” and within the framework of integrated water resource management (IWRM) involving extensive stakeholder consultations to ensure adequate public participation.
The two main questions that this paper is trying to answer are:
- The need for Multi-state cooperation to balance conflicting water uses in trans-boundary Drina waters is enhanced, while climate adaptation measures in policy and planning frameworks is mainstreamed.
- A shared vision and technical cooperation frameworks agreed with sustainable financing identified, including a strategic action plan for more sustainable and balanced investments, including identified investments that would be the subject of the GEF Drina follow-up actions.


For citations: Sudar, S., Aleksandar, I., Cvetković, V., (2016).ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK (ESMF) FOR FOSTERING ENVIRONEMTNAL PROTECTION AND SECURITY IN DRINA RIVER BASIN RIPARIAN COUNTRIES. Paper presented at the 7th International Scientific Contemporary Trends in Social Control of Crime.

понедељак, 16. мај 2016.

Theoretical foundations related to Natural disasters and measuring the resilience of the communities before disasters happens - Establishing proposal variables"



Design/methodology/approach: The paper seeks to answer to the fundamental question about the Natural disasters and their unimpeded existence no matter the preferences of Man, their characteristics, some theoretical observations about the consequences from the Natural disasters, the suitable models for Natural Disaster Management, and, in the end, the Model for measuring the Resilience of the Community according to the place is presented. The paper is divided into 6 parts: 1. Introduction that observes the basic theoretical ground for the material in the paper. Then comes the four major parts: 2. About Natural disasters; 3. Consequences from Natural disasters; 4. Natural disasters Management; 5. Some considerations about determination on the Variables for measuring the resilience based on the location; 6. The model for measuring the resilience according to place; and 5. Final observations and recommendations. The paper is based on qualitative approach. Namely, based on Literature review the Authors had made the overview of the theoretical findings related to the basic questions and the conceptual determination of the meaning on Natural disasters, the consequences that they made, their management, and the proposed variables for measuring the resilience based on cited model, but also express their own concrete suggestions for amending this model. 

Findings: Scientific review of the knowledge related to Natural disasters and the proposal of an amended model for determining variables for measuring resilience of the communities according to place. 

Research limitations/implications: The presented model for determination of the resilience of the communities according to place should be implemented designing a questionnaire and a conducted survey. Not having practical data in this manner represents research limitation. However, this proposal should open a debate in order to formulate model that will be the most applicable in the contemporary societies (at least on regional level). 

Key words: Natural disaster; Community; Resilience; Sustainability.

For citations: Aleksandar, I., Cvetković, V., & Sudar, S. (2016). ​T​​heoretical foundations related to Natural disasters and measuring the resilience of the communities before disasters happens - Establishing proposal variables". Paper presented at the 7th International Scientific Contemporary Trends in Social Control of Crime.

Influence of Income Level on Citizen Preparedness for Response to Natural Disasters


The aim of quantitative research is to examine the influence of income level on the citizen preparedness for response to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where occurred or there is a high risk of flood occurrence, nineteen of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were randomly chosen. In selected communities the research was performed in those areas that were most affected in relation to the water level or potential risk. The survey applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicated that the citizens who had income above RSD 90,000 at the household level, in a higher percentage took preventive measures, they know what floods are and know the safety procedures. On the other hand, citizens who have income below RSD 25,000 are not yet prepared, or intend to take certain measures in the next 6 months. The originality of the research stems from the fact of unexamined influence of income level on citizen preparedness. The research results can be used when creating strategies to improve the preparedness of citizens for response. The originality of the research is reflected in the fact that Serbia has not examined the influence of income level on preparedness of citizens to respond. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizen preparedness for response with regard to the level of citizen incomes.
Key words: natural disasters, floods, citizens, income, preparedness for response, Serbia.

For citations: Cvetković, V. (2016). Influence of Income Level on Citizen Preparedness for Response to Natural Disasters. Vojno delo, 2016/4.

четвртак, 05. мај 2016.

Евакуација у природним катастрофама - Evacuation in natural disaster








У монографији изнети су резултати квантитативног истраживања евакуације грађана у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама у Републици Србији. У реализацији овог истраживања учествовало је 2.500 грађана из деветнаест локалних заједница у Србији. Овом приликом хтели бисмо да им се од срца захвалимо на времену које су одвојили за спровођење анкетног испитивања, као и на исказаном стрпљењу. Истраживање евакуације грађана у природним катастрофама део је обимнијег истраживања спроведеног у склопу докторске дисертације „Спремност грађана за реаговање на природну катастрофу изазвану поплавом у Републици Србији“ др Владимира М. Цветковића одбрањене 29. марта 2016. године на Факултету безбедности Универзитета у Београду.

За квалитет монографије аутори посебну захвалност дугују рецензентима: проф. др Владимиру Јаковљевићу, проф. др Драгану Млађану и проф. др Славољубу Драгићевићу. 



1. Сажетак

Moнографија представља резултат квантитативног истраживања о евакуацији грађана у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама (у даљем тексту: природне катастрофе). Предмет рада огледа се у испитивању перцепције грађана о пристанку на евакуацију и начину њеног спровођења, са посебним освртом на познавање праваца кретања (путева) и оближњих зборних места, места прихвата и рејона размештаја за потребе евакуације. Поред тога, аутори испитују и утицај демографских (пол, године, ниво образовања, успех у средњој школи и родитељство), социо-економских (запосленост, висина прихода, брачни статус, регулисаност војне обавезе и удаљеност куће/стана од реке) и психолошких карактеристика (страх, претходно искуство, перцепција ризика, мотивисаност и ниво религиозности) грађана на споменуте димензије евакуације у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама. 
За потребе реализације истраживања, статистичком методом и методом искуствене генерализације стратификоване су локалне заједнице у Републици Србији са високим и ниским ризиком настанка поплава. На тај начин добијен је стратум, односно популација, који су чинили сви пунолетни становници локалних заједница у којима се догодила поплава, или постоји ризик да се догоди. Из тако добијеног стратума, методом случајног узорка одабрано је њих 19 од укупно 154 у којима је индикована угроженост или потенцијална угроженост од поплава. Истраживањем су обухваћене следеће локалне заједнице: Обреновац, Шабац, Крушевац, Крагујевац, Сремска Митровица, Прибој, Баточина, Свилајнац, Лапово, Параћин, Смедеревска Паланка, Јаша Томић, Лозница, Бајина Башта, Смедерево, Нови Сад, Краљево, Рековац и Ужице. 
За реализацију анкетног испитивања одабрана је стратегија испитивања у домаћинствима уз примену вишеетапног случајног узорка. Том приликом прикупљени су подаци о различитим димензијама евакуације, као и о демографским, социо-економским и психолошким карактеристикама грађана. Сређени, класификовани и обрађени подаци анализирани су коришћењем више техника: одређивање учесталости одређеног одговора у укупној маси одговора испитаника, одређивање процента учешћа одређеног одговора у укупној маси одговора и Хи-квадрат тестом независности (χ2) утврђивале су се статистички значајне разлике између група које су се поредиле, или су се утврђивале статистички значајне везе између појединих одговора. Поред тога, коришћена је једнофакторска анализа варијансе и Т-тест независних узорака.
С обзиром на искуства Републике Србије у погледу потешкоћа током спровођења евакуације грађана из поплављених подручја, може се рећи да монографија има оригиналан научни и друштвени значај. Узимајући у обзир квантитет и квалитет структуре узорка, резултати представљени у овом раду могу се генерализовати на целокупну популацију становништва. Са друге стране, остављајући по страни уложени труд и обимне резултате изнете у монографији, велики број истраживачких питања из области евакуације остаје да се проблематизује. Резултати истраживања могу имати озбиљне импликације на унапређење спровођења евакуације у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама. Као такви, свакако ће представљати и основни корпус сазнања у будућим истраживањима о евакуацији грађана у природним катастрофама изазваним поплавама.

Кључне речи:
1. безбедност
2. природне катастрофе
3. грађани
4. евакуација
5. пристанак на евакуацију
6. познавање праваца кретања
7. познавање зборних места
8. демографски фактори
9. социо-економски фактори
10. психолошки фактори

За цитирање: Цветковић, В., Гачић, Ј. (2016). Евакуација у природним катастрофама. Београд: Задужбина Андрејевић.

2. Abstract

The monograph is the result of a quantitative survey on the evacuation of citizens in natural disasters caused by floods (hereinafter referred to as natural disasters). The aim of the monograph is to test citizens’ perceptions on consent and a method of evacuation with special emphasis on familiarity with directions of movement (routes) and nearby gathering points, acceptance places and areas of deployment for the purposes of evacuation. In addition, the authors examine the impact of demographic (gender, age, level of education, success in high school and parenthood), socio-economic (employment, income level, marital status, military duty and distance from house/apartment), and psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception, motivation, and level of religiosity) of citizens on the aforementioned dimensions of evacuation in natural disasters caused by floods.
For the purposes of the survey, we randomly selected 19 communities of 150 municipalities, 23 cities and the City of Belgrade where a flood occurred or there is a risk of flooding. It is significant to note that empirical survey covered urban and rural communities in different parts of Serbia: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Batočina, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac and Užice. The survey was carried out by application of interviewing strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. On this occasion, data were collected on different aspects of the evacuation and also on demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens. Arranged, classified and processed data were analyzed using several techniques: calculation of the frequency of certain responses in total number of answers, calculation of the percentage of specific responses in total number of responses and using Chi-squared test of independence (χ2) we found statistically significant differences between compared groups or statistically significant relationship between some responses. In addition, we used the One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the Independent samples T-test.
Given the experience of the Republic of Serbia regarding the present difficulties in the implementation of the evacuation of citizens from flooded areas, it can be said that the monograph has original scientific and social significance. Taking into account the quantity and quality of the structure of the sample, the results presented in the monograph can be generalized to the entire population. On the other hand, leaving aside the effort and extensive results presented in the monograph, a number of survey questions regarding evacuation need to be problematized. The survey results can have serious implications for an improved implementation of evacuation in natural disasters caused by flooding. As such, they will present the basic corpus of knowledge in future studies on the evacuation of citizens in natural disasters caused by floods.

Key words:
1. security
2. natural disasters
3. citizens
4. evacuation
5. consent to be evacuated
6. familiarity with directions of evacuation
7. awareness of nearby gathering points
8. demographic factors
9. socio-economic factors
10. psychological factors